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Silicon Valley bank imploded. Taylor Swift started her Eras tour. We entered the debt ceiling debate yet again. OpenAI blah blah. Labor market housing market stock market crypto again somehow inflation federal reserve sentiment gas prices fear.

This year has been tiring for many people, for a lot of reasons

Good things: We managed to skirt a recession (again!) and get inflation down (somehow!) and maintain a relatively strong labor market (excellent!), and still grow the economy. There were historic labor movements, like the UAW strike, that allowed employees to demand more from their employers
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So many economists were wrong. Everyone thought that we would be in a recession this year. In 2022, Bloomberg had this post stating that there would be a Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100% in Blow to Biden and that sentiment carried into 2023.

Wrong! 85% of economists thought that we would be in a recession by end of 2023.
Big wrong! And we weren’t! Everyone learned a lot of valuable lessons on how the economy works in the post-pandemic world. As Adam Ozimek writes in The Simple Mistake That Almost Triggered a Recession why they were wrong, with ‘their pessimistic views about the labor market’ being a main issue.

We learned that we don’t have to destroy the economy in order to save it.

Full article:

0:00 Intro
03:31 Vibes
05:17 Federal Reserve
08:47 Fiscal Policy
11:45 The Ladder
14:57 Labor Market
18:20 Stock Market
20:20 Housing Market
23:30 Inflation
27:09 In General
36:05 Predictions

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47 comentarios en «The 2024 Economic Outlook»
  1. Skeptical that increasing immigration will lead to GDP increase rather than just worsening our housing and healthcare crisis. Look at Canada and the UK…. Historically it seems that long periods of increased immigration typically have an inverse relationship with QOL and real wages. Thinking about the gilded age and 1965 – present.

  2. Thanks for sharing all this knowledge, Kyla! I actually learn shit when I watch your videos on instagram and YouTube.

    I prefer the YouTube vids cuz I can put it on when I’m doing something else, and then rewind when I inevitably miss something or need to look something up. It’s clear you’re putting a lot of work into these, and we seriously don’t know what’s going on 😅😅😅 so thanks!

  3. Kyla, I am so grateful for your work. Your use of data, literature, economics and philosophy are so eloquent. The clarity and conciseness of your thesis cannot be understated. I believe you are definitely on the right track with your predictions for this year and the years ahead and that these are not just your thoughts, but the thoughts and predictions of many others and that of your followers. Thank you for your work.

  4. I don’t think a soft landing has been achieved. Doesn’t the recession typically occur 11-18 months after the last interest hike? With all the Covid programs in place people weren’t getting evicted from their homes. That changes come December 1st. What about FHA delinquencies? And what about business ‘s having to refinance their debt at a much higher rate in the coming months

  5. Kayla you definitely hit on great points in the big picture of things. A breakdown of certain areas that are actually improving smaller mid metropolitan growth development vs huge cities declining.

  6. Kyla I see a bright spark in you. I follow on tiktok as well, I’m sure you will go far. Maybe one day our paths will align, we are similar in many ways from my admittedly parasocial perspective.

  7. Absolutely bonkers how you incorporate so many disciplines from economics, literature, and philosophy to online trends to tell such a cohesive and accurate picture of the human condition… thanks for doing what you do and please don't stop!! Happy new year!

  8. Zoning & parking minimums are the biggest factors in the housing crisis. We tried building basically only SFHs for 40 years, and now here we are with shitty commutes, sprawl, and overpriced cities.

  9. "Things aren't what they used to be' is the rallying cry of small minds. When men say things used to be better, they invariably mean they were better for them, because they were young, and had all their hopes intact. The world is bound to look a darker place as you slide into the grave"

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